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A storm that was still only a depression over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday is now the weather story for India's entire east coast. Cyclone Arnab is forecast to strengthen step by step over the next three days, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already put coastal Andhra Pradesh, southern Odisha and parts of Telangana on alert. Here is the timeline, the landfall forecast and the rain warnings, as they stood in the latest IMD bulletins.
From depression to very severe cyclonic storm
According to reports from the Indian Express and the Economic Times, the system lay centred over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on the morning of October 25, and was practically stationary for several hours. The IMD's sequence from there is unusually clear, and it is worth reading in full because each step changes what people on the coast should prepare for.
First, the depression was expected to move nearly southwards, intensify into a deep depression, and then recurve west-northwestwards over the Bay of Bengal during October 25. Then, by the morning of Monday, October 26, it was forecast to become a cyclonic storm — at which point it takes the name Arnab, a name contributed by Bangladesh meaning "ocean". By the morning of Tuesday, October 27, the IMD expects it to become a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal. Finally, by the morning of Wednesday, October 28, it is expected to reach very severe cyclonic storm strength near the Andhra Pradesh coast.
Where and when landfall is expected
The IMD's landfall forecast, repeated across the Indian Express, Economic Times and NDTV reports of its bulletin, is that Arnab will cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam as a very severe cyclonic storm by the forenoon of October 28, with maximum sustained winds of 115 to 125 kmph and gusts up to 140 kmph. That corridor matters: it puts the north coastal Andhra districts directly in the path, while the storm's outer bands reach far beyond the landfall point itself.
Fishermen have been told not to venture into the sea, and those already out have been asked to return, according to the reports. The Visakhapatnam Cyclone Warning Centre has warned of an extremely rough sea, with gale-force gusts along the coast on October 27 and 28. If you live in the corridor, the practical window is now: the worst weather arrives with the storm, but the rain starts earlier.
Heavy rain starts Monday night
According to a detailed regional timeline reported by Argus News, rainbands from the system's outer rim were expected to reach south Odisha from Monday night, October 26, from around 9 pm, with continuous heavy rain intensifying by Tuesday morning and extremely heavy rain — above 200 mm under a red alert — from Tuesday midnight through Wednesday as the storm nears the coast. Interior south Odisha districts were forecast to see their heaviest downpours early on October 28, lasting into the morning of October 29.
Odisha has responded accordingly. Five districts bordering Andhra Pradesh — Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada and Malkangiri — are under a red warning for heavy to very heavy rainfall from October 27, according to the IMD bulletin reported by the Indian Express, and schools in those districts are to remain closed on October 28 and 29. The state has mobilised 225 rescue teams, distributed tower lights for night operations, and cancelled leave for disaster personnel, Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi said, according to the Economic Times.
Telangana's red alert for October 28
Inland, the IMD's Hyderabad centre has issued a red alert for Wednesday, October 28, for Mulugu, Bhadradri Kothagudem and Khammam districts, forecasting heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy rain possible at isolated places. That forecast is confirmed by both the Siasat and NewsMeter reports of the IMD Hyderabad bulletin, with an orange alert for Jayashankar Bhupalpally, Hanamkonda, Warangal, Mahabubabad and Suryapet, and a yellow alert for a further set of districts including Karimnagar, Nalgonda and Siddipet.
Telangana's independent forecaster T. Balaji, known as the Telangana Weatherman, is quoted in the same reports as expecting heavy to very heavy rain in eastern Telangana districts including Khammam, Bhadradri Kothagudem, Mulugu and Mahabubabad on October 28, with only light to moderate rain and thunderstorms for Hyderabad after October 29. The message for Telangana is therefore different from the coast: no landfall winds, but a serious one-day rain event that can waterlog low-lying areas and disrupt road travel.
What to watch next
Cyclone forecasts change as the storm moves, and the IMD issues fresh bulletins several times a day. Three things will tell you whether this forecast is holding: whether the system is named Arnab on Monday as expected, whether it reaches severe strength on Tuesday morning, and whether the track stays between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam. A shift north or south by even a hundred kilometres would move the heaviest rain with it. For now, the picture is consistent across the IMD's own bulletins and the major outlets reporting them: a very severe storm on Wednesday morning, rain from Monday night, and the widest impact across coastal Andhra Pradesh, southern Odisha and eastern Telangana.
Related reading: Serbia's student movement wins a historic election and Trump's Cuba threat, explained. Sources: Indian Express on the IMD bulletin and Economic Times on the Odisha red alert.