Elon Musk's $158 Million Bet on Texas: Inside the Paxton vs Talarico Money Race

Elon Musk is back in the money game — bigger than ever. The world's richest person donated $158 million last month to the Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC backing Republican Senate candidates, which almost immediately funneled the money toward the Texas Senate race, according to Federal Election Commission filings reported this week. The New York Times, which first reported the scale of Musk's midterm spending, puts his total political giving since the summer at more than $276 million — making him the largest known donor of the 2026 midterms.

The Texas flag in front of the US Capitol dome, symbolizing the money race in the Texas Senate contest — Global Insight

The mechanics are striking. Musk gave $75 million to the Senate Leadership Fund on September 9 and another $83 million two weeks later; one day after each donation, the fund disbursed the same amount to Texas PAC, a group that has reported over $100 million in pro-Paxton and anti-Talarico spending. The two donations alone made up more than half of the super PAC's total third-quarter receipts.

Why Texas, and why Paxton

The race pits Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican, against Democratic state Representative James Talarico in a contest polls show is unexpectedly tight. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994 — but Talarico, a young progressive known for faith-based messaging, has raised record sums and kept the race competitive.

Musk's interest is personal as well as political. He is a Texas resident, and his largest companies — SpaceX and Tesla — base many of their operations in the state. He has also criticized Talarico publicly in recent weeks. Beyond the Senate Leadership Fund money, Musk gave $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, a committee dedicated to Paxton, and more than $80 million from July to September to his own America PAC, which deployed nearly 3,000 paid canvassers in early October with over a third of its spending aimed at the Texas race.

The reversal nobody expected

Just last year, Musk said he would do "a lot less" political spending in the future. He had fallen out with Donald Trump over the president's signature tax and domestic policy law. Both of those positions have since reversed: the relationship with Trump has visibly improved — Trump honored Musk with the National Medal of Science last week — and Musk has now poured $366 million into federal committees across the 2025–2026 cycle, more than the roughly $290 million he spent in 2024.

For scale: Musk's single $158 million donation to the Senate Leadership Fund exceeded the entire third-quarter fundraising of the Democrats' Senate Majority PAC, which raised $151 million.

What the money buys — and what it doesn't

Money on this scale buys saturation: wall-to-wall advertising, ground operations and opposition research. But Texas is a reminder that money has limits. Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter alone — the largest quarterly Senate fundraising figure in history — largely from small donors energized precisely by the spectacle of billionaire spending against him. The race has become a test of two theories of modern politics: that overwhelming financial firepower decides elections, or that it can provoke an equal and opposite reaction.

With the midterms approaching, the Texas Senate contest is now one of the most expensive — and most closely watched — races in the country. Whatever the outcome, the $158 million paper trail will be studied for years as a case study in how a single donor can reshape a Senate map.

For more on money and power, read how Apple and Nvidia each gave $25 million to Trump's ballroom and SpaceX's $8 billion spectrum deal.

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