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Saudi Arabia has one of the world's biggest defence budgets and some of the most advanced American weapons money can buy. It is now losing a war of attrition to a militia it has been bombing for a decade.
What the attacks revealed
According to a Wall Street Journal report published today, deadly missile and drone attacks by Houthi rebels on the Saudi capital and the kingdom's oil infrastructure have exposed the limitations of the Saudi armed forces — and triggered what the Journal calls a risky new phase of the Yemen war for Riyadh.
The mismatch is the story. Saudi Arabia fields advanced US fighters and sophisticated air-defence systems. The Houthis counter with plentiful ground forces and a homegrown missile-and-drone industry that keeps getting better. On the ground, Riyadh doesn't fight directly at all: it relies on fractious militias loyal to the Riyadh-backed Yemeni government, with Saudi jets and helicopters providing air support from above. It is an expensive way to fight a war, and the Houthis have learned to fight around it.
The attacks on the kingdom are part of a broader escalation: earlier this month, Houthi missiles struck the presidential palace in Aden — see our report on the Aden palace attack.
Why the kingdom's shield is cracking
Two structural problems are catching up with Riyadh. First, its air defences are hamstrung by a shortage of interceptors — the Journal reports the kingdom is running short of the missiles its air-defence batteries need to keep shooting down incoming drones and ballistic missiles. Second, the United States and key allies have grown reluctant to provide direct military assistance, leaving Saudi Arabia to shop elsewhere: the kingdom has turned to Turkey, Pakistan and several European countries for air-defence units, and Egypt said on Sunday it was prepared to offer military help, according to a spokesman for President Sisi.
There is also an irony Washington won't miss: on Friday, Trump urged Saudi Arabia to accept military help from Israel against the Houthis. Riyadh — which maintains an extensive behind-the-scenes security relationship with Israel despite having no formal diplomatic ties — has not publicly responded.
The Iran connection
The Houthis are not doing this alone. The Journal reports that Iran has provided the rebels with targeting assistance, training, intelligence and tactical guidance — and a separate WSJ investigation published two days ago goes further: Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers inside Yemen helped direct recent attacks, the Houthis have swept into the port city of Mokha and seized territory around the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and their new fibre-optic-guided FPV drones point directly to Iranian training. Researchers also found the Houthis now source drone and missile components directly from China — a supply chain that sanctions were supposed to prevent.
This is the same Iranian playbook we've tracked in the Gulf: for the maritime version, see our reports on Iran's new Hormuz tactics and the burning tankers in the strait. Tehran is fighting on every front at once — and Riyadh is discovering what that costs.
What happens next
Saudi Arabia's options are all bad. Escalating the air war hasn't worked in ten years. A ground invasion is politically unthinkable. Buying air defences from Turkey, Pakistan and Europe takes time the kingdom may not have, and every successful Houthi strike on oil infrastructure tightens the economic screw — energy markets are already on edge from the Hormuz crisis.
The deeper lesson is one military planners everywhere are absorbing: in the drone age, a bigger defence budget doesn't buy security — it buys expensive targets. The Houthis understood that before Riyadh did.
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