Gulf States Fear a Wider, More Destructive War as US and Israel Weigh Fresh Iran Strikes

Gulf Arab states are warning that another US-Israeli attack on Iran could unleash an even more destructive war across the region — and they are saying so in public, at a major security forum, days before Americans vote in midterm elections. "We find ourselves drawn within a crisis that we worked diplomatically very h
ard to try to avert," Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, told the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on Sunday. "We are clearly seeking a political off-ramp."

The warning reflects a fear shared across the Gulf: that Iran is better prepared for a second round than it was for the first. According to Bloomberg reporting cited by multiple outlets, Gulf officials believe Iran could retaliate against a wider range of targets this time. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told the same forum he was "extremely worried" about fresh hostilities, saying a second round would be "more dangerous, more destructive, and will lead to nowhere." Iran has reinforced those fears: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Saturday ordered commanders to prepare immediate counterstrikes and expand their list of potential American and Israeli targets, and Iran's army warned that another attack would spread the war across a larger area.

The war the Gulf is still paying for

The confrontation began on February 28 with joint American and Israeli strikes against Iran, followed by Iranian attacks on Gulf countries hosting strategic facilities, until a truce in early April. Tehran has fired thousands of missiles and drones at countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar this year, striking sites such as oil facilities, airports and power plants, according to reports from NDTV. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Gulf Arab states, including Iraq, will be among the world's worst-performing economies this year, with Saudi Arabia's GDP expected to shrink 3.3% and Qatar and Kuwait facing even steeper contractions — while Saudi Arabia also fends off daily attacks from the Houthis, an Iran-backed group based in Yemen.

That economic damage is why the Gulf's message is as much about money as about missiles. Gargash argued that countries uninvolved in initiating the conflict should not continue bearing the costs of disrupted shipping, and the UAE regards restoring normal trade and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz as essential. Qatar is mediating efforts to narrow differences between the United States and Iran, with negotiations focused partly on reopening navigation through the strait; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iranian negotiators were in Qatar discussing proposals that could allow the waterway to reopen.

Trump's timetable — and the oil market's verdict

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the US and Israel will "finish the job" in Iran, but has ruled out fresh strikes before Tuesday's US midterm elections, while leaving open the possibility of renewed attacks while peace talks remain deadlocked. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emphasised Washington's preference for a diplomatic settlement. Oil prices fell around 3% in early trading on Monday, with Brent crude dropping below $110 a barrel, after Axios reported that Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he wanted to give diplomacy more time before potentially restarting strikes — though the global benchmark is still up around 80% this year, and traders remain sensitive to any sign of renewed disruption to Hormuz shipments.

The Gulf's plea, in essence, is that a second round would not be a repeat of the first: a better-prepared Iran, a wider target list, and economies already weakened by eight months of war. As one regional analyst put it, he had "not heard a single Gulf official or civilian support renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran, but the majority sense a new round is imminent." Diplomacy has a window measured in days — until the midterms pass and the military option returns to the table. Related reading: Iran Hormuz Shipping: New Tactics Before US Vote and G20 Atlanta Talks End Without Consensus Communique.