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Cyclone Arnab has strengthened into a severe cyclonic storm, and the clock is now running in hours, not days. Andhra Pradesh is under a red alert today, Tuesday, October 27, with extremely heavy rain forecast for the coastal districts — and the storm is due to cross the coast tomorrow, Wednesday, October 28, as a very severe cyclonic storm. If you live anywhere along the Andhra coast, today is the day to finish preparations, not start them.
Where the storm is now
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Arnab formed over the Bay of Bengal on Monday morning and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm by Monday evening. In its Monday night bulletin, the IMD placed the storm about 490 km south-southeast of Gopalpur in Odisha, 490 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 560 km east-southeast of Kakinada, 660 km east of Machilipatnam and 730 km east of Bapatla, moving west-northwestwards at about 17 kmph. The system was expected to become a very severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday morning, and then turn northwestwards towards the coast.
Landfall: Wednesday forenoon, near Yanam
The IMD's current forecast is that Arnab will cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, by the forenoon of Wednesday, October 28, as a very severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph. The Hindu reports the landfall point as near Yanam or Kakinada, with a red alert for seven of Andhra Pradesh's 28 districts for Tuesday. The two framings describe the same stretch of coast, and the exact landfall point will only narrow as the storm nears land — which is why official bulletins, not social media posts, are the ones to follow.
Rain today: the immediate danger
Wind gets the headlines, but water does much of the damage. The IMD warns of isolated extremely heavy rainfall of 200 mm or more in Kakinada, East Godavari, Dr. B. R. Ambedkar Konaseema, Eluru, West Godavari, Alluri Sitharama Raju and Anakapalli districts on Tuesday, with heavy to very heavy rain of around 70 mm to 200 mm in Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, NTR, Krishna, Guntur, Bapatla, Srikakulam and Parvathipuram Manyam. Extremely heavy rain is also forecast over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on October 27 and 28, with rain continuing in parts of the region on October 29. Southern Odisha faces extremely heavy rain too, with landslide risk in hilly areas and hazardous sea conditions, according to ABP Live's summary of the IMD outlook.
How prepared is the coast?
Reports from Andhra Pradesh describe a large mobilisation: according to one preparedness summary, the storm is expected to affect 16 districts covering 2,460 revenue villages and 92 urban areas, with 1,763 cyclone shelters identified, 2,907 control rooms set up and 3,185 nodal officers appointed. National and State Disaster Response Force teams have been deployed across the affected districts, beaches have been shut to the public, movement on coastal roads is scheduled to be suspended from Tuesday afternoon, and educational institutions in cyclone-affected areas have been closed as a precaution. Our earlier Cyclone Arnab explainer traces how the system built from a depression into this storm.
What to watch next
Three things will decide how bad this gets: whether the storm holds its current track towards Yanam, whether it weakens at all before landfall, and how much rain falls in the 24 hours before the centre crosses the coast. A storm that arrives exactly as forecast is dangerous enough; one that stalls or dumps its rain over the same districts twice is worse. The forecast will be updated through Tuesday, and the landfall window — Wednesday forenoon — is close enough now that any shift matters. For now, the message from every official source is the same: stay away from the coast, do not go out to sea, and follow the district administration's advisories rather than forwarded messages.