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Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has won an unprecedented fourth term, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a runoff that went down to the wire. The result, announced by Brazil's electoral authority on Sunday, October 25, makes the 80-year-old leftist the first Brazilian president elected to the office four times — and the first candidate since direct elections returned in 1989 to win the presidency after finishing second in the first round. It also leaves a deeply divided country, a strengthened opposition in Congress, and a legal fight that may not be over.
A comeback from second place
The scale of the comeback is what makes this result historic. According to reports from CNN, Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 with 47.03% of valid votes against Lula's 45.16%, a gap of roughly 2.2 million votes that gave the Bolsonaro campaign the early momentum. In the runoff, the order flipped. Al Jazeera, reporting the electoral body's count, put Lula above 51% against Bolsonaro's roughly 48%, while the Indian Express, citing the electoral court with all votes counted, reported Lula at 51.8%, a lead of nearly 4.4 million votes. The two reports agree on the outcome and the rough margin; the small difference in the final percentage reflects when each outlet took its snapshot of the count.
That first-round-to-runoff reversal has never happened before in Brazil's modern democratic era, according to CNN. It also denied Flavio Bolsonaro what his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, could not achieve in 2022: defeating Lula at the ballot box. Flavio Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Donald Trump, had campaigned on the rightward shift sweeping Latin America; Lula's win bucks that regional trend, at least in Brazil.
A turbulent election day
The result came after a chaotic voting day. According to CNN and Al Jazeera, voting was extended by two hours after last-minute pleas from both campaigns. Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin granted a request from Lula's campaign, which cited incidents affecting buses transporting voters to polling venues in several states. Bolsonaro's campaign had also requested an extension in some areas, citing difficulties voters faced reaching polling stations because of heavy rain.
That extension is now the likeliest source of a legal challenge. Al Jazeera's live coverage notes that legal challenges are likely, that the Bolsonaro camp had yet to concede, and that Brazil's judicial system itself is divided on the question. The extension, the polarised campaign, and a Congress in which Bolsonaro's party has grown — alongside right-wing governors holding power in key states — mean Lula's fourth term begins with negotiation, not a coronation.
What the fourth term will face
Lula's campaign framed the win as, in the words of his campaign coordinator Edinho Silva, a "historic victory for democracy". The substance of the campaign, according to CNN, was dominated by the cost of living, crime and corruption — the same pressures that have driven voters to the right elsewhere in Latin America. Lula is also a vocal critic of US President Donald Trump, and the Associated Press, cited by the Indian Express, said his win will bring relief to those who oppose growing US influence in the region.
The practical calendar is already set: according to the Indian Express, Lula's new term starts on January 5, 2027. Between now and then, the questions are whether Bolsonaro concedes or litigates, how Lula assembles a governing coalition in a Congress tilted further right, and whether the cost-of-living pressures that defined the campaign ease or sharpen. The runoff answered who governs Brazil. It did not settle how governable Brazil will be.
Related reading: Serbia's student movement wins a historic election and Trump's Cuba threat, explained. Sources: Reuters on Lula's reelection and Indian Express on the final vote share.