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Either way, the next prime minister of New Zealand will be a man named Chris. That is about the only thing Saturday's general election settled. With most votes counted on Saturday night, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National Party and Chris Hipkins' Labour Party were locked together at around 29% of the party vote each — the closest election in New Zealand in years — and neither side could see a clear path to power.
A dead heat, counted live
Voting began on October 26 and ended on Saturday, with nearly 3.8 million people eligible to take part. As counting continued through Saturday night, the two main parties swapped places at the top of the count, separated at times by only a few thousand votes. With about 60% of the vote counted, National led with 29.4% against Labour's 29.3% — a margin so small that both camps were warning supporters not to read too much into the early figures.
The seat projections told a similar story of deadlock. With more than 90% of the vote counted, National was on track for 42 seats, its coalition partners ACT on 13 and New Zealand First on 12 — a combined 67 seats for the governing coalition. On the left, Labour was on 35, the Greens on 16 and Te Pāti Māori on 5, a combined 56. The difference-maker was the centrist Opportunity Party, on about 5.4% of the vote and a projected 7 seats — enough to hold the balance of power in a 130-seat Parliament where 66 seats make a majority.
Why nobody can call it yet
The coalition's 67 seats would be a wafer-thin majority in a hugely expanded Parliament — the extra seats come from an "overhang", because National and Te Pāti Māori won more electorate seats than their party vote entitles them to. But late votes and special votes, including ballots cast by New Zealanders living overseas, are expected to favour the left, and the final verified tally is not due until November 27. Results from 95% of ballots cast were expected by the end of Saturday night, but the shape of the next government may not be settled for weeks.
Both leaders urged patience. Hipkins told cheering Labour supporters that New Zealand had spoken but "it may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you've said", while New Zealand First leader Winston Peters told journalists: "Don't get carried away." Luxon, who had previously ruled out working with Opportunity, now faces the prospect of a phone call to its leader, Qiulae Wong, who said she had not received a text from him yet. Pollster David Farrar called a hung parliament "the perfect excuse" for Luxon to work with Opportunity — but as results stood, neither the right nor the left bloc had enough seats to govern.
What the campaign was about
The campaign was dominated by the cost of living and the state of the economy. Luxon, who survived two failed bids by his own National Party to oust him as leader, asked voters to "stick to the plan that's working" and promised "no new taxes" after three fractious years in office. Hipkins, who became prime minister in 2023 when Jacinda Ardern quit and then lost that year's election, pitched himself as an everyman alternative, while the Greens surged to record support on the same cost-of-living message.
Several top National ministers looked set to lose their seats, and National won more electorate seats than expected — including Tamaki, Nelson and possibly Hamilton East — even as its party vote stalled. For now, the count continues, the special votes wait, and the kingmaker waits for a call. New Zealand has voted; it has not yet decided.
Sources: NZ Herald and Malay Mail (AFP).