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American drivers are finally getting a break at the pump. For the first time since July, the national average price of a gallon of regular gasoline has fallen below $4 — and analysts say it could keep dropping into Thanksgiving. The question is why it happened now, and whether the relief will last.
According to AAA, the national average crossed below the $4 threshold on Tuesday, November 10, landing at $3.94 a gallon for regular. Prices have fallen about 40 cents over the past month, with much of that decline coming in the last two weeks. It is the first time the average has been under $4 since July 20 — but the reasons are more ordinary, and more fragile, than the headline suggests.
The main driver: cheaper oil
The biggest reason gas is cheaper is that crude oil is cheaper. Brent crude, the international benchmark that refineries turn into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, is now trading at about $90 a barrel. It fell 13% last week — its biggest one-week percentage drop since April 2020 — then fell another 5% on Monday, briefly dipping below $90 on Tuesday.
Why is oil falling? Traders are betting that the war in Iran will not flare up again. Last week, President Donald Trump told NBC News he had no plans to attack Iran, and on Monday he told reporters at the White House that "Iran militarily is effectively over." Markets also read the Democrats' strong midterm showing as a limit on the most economically disruptive policies, including the war. More oil is also reaching the market through the Middle East via pipelines, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased.
As Jorge León, head of geopolitics at the research group Rystad Energy, told NPR, that progress "could easily be reversed if the war escalates". The price drop is a bet on calm — and bets can be wrong.
The seasonal shift
The second reason is the calendar. Gas prices almost always ease in the autumn, and this year is no exception. Summer is the peak driving season; when it ends, fewer people drive, refineries finish their annual maintenance, and there is a little more gasoline to go around.
The fuel itself also gets cheaper to make. Refineries produce two blends of gasoline a year: a summer blend that evaporates less quickly in the heat and produces less smog, and a winter blend that uses more butane to help engines start in freezing weather. The winter blend costs less to produce, and the switch to it — moved to September 1 this year by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy — is now fully in effect. The end of Daylight Saving Time helps too: Americans drive less when it gets dark earlier, and sunsets keep getting earlier until December 21.
How low could it go — and the catch
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told NPR the national average could reach $3.75 by Thanksgiving if there are no geopolitical shocks. Twenty-six states already average below $4, with North Carolina the cheapest at $3.26. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts an average retail price of $3.91 a gallon for 2026 as a whole, falling to $3.56 in 2027.
But drivers should not expect a return to the prices of the recent past. Experts warn gasoline is unlikely to approach the pre-Iran-war level of $2.98 a gallon any time soon — and prices remain about 30% higher than a year ago. The deeper problem is refining capacity: according to independent oil analyst Tom Kloza, about 7 million barrels a day of refined-products capacity has been knocked out by drones or missiles in Russia and the Middle East, "and that's not likely to return soon".
Diesel tells the same story. While gasoline is down about 10% in seven weeks, diesel has fallen only about 5% from its record $6.52 a gallon on September 22, and still averages about $6.15. Damage to Russia's refineries has largely cut its diesel exports, and diesel and jet fuel stay in high demand through the colder months. Ironically, that demand helps gasoline: refineries are running at higher utilisation than a year ago to make all the jet fuel and diesel they can, and gasoline comes out as a byproduct, adding to supply.
The bottom line is that the sub-$4 gallon is real, and it is mostly about cheaper crude and the season — not politics, as De Haan put it: "For now, it's the seasonal shift, not politics, driving the relief at the pump." Whether it lasts depends on the one thing nobody at the pump can control: whether the calm in the Middle East holds. For the wider energy picture, see how Ukraine's strikes hit 30% of Russia's oil refining capacity and where Venezuela's $12 billion in oil revenue went. According to reports from NPR and CNN, the national average is now $3.94 a gallon.