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Cyclone Arnab has crossed the threshold forecasters were watching for: it is now officially a very severe cyclonic storm, less than a day from the Andhra Pradesh coast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a Red Message — its cyclone warning — for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts, and the disruption has already begun on the ground: 53 trains have been cancelled as eastern India braces for a Wednesday-morning landfall near Yanam. This is what has changed since this morning, where the storm is now, and where its rain goes next.
Where the storm is now
In its 5:30 a.m. IST bulletin on Tuesday, October 27, the IMD placed Arnab over the west-central Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.9°N and longitude 84.8°E — about 260 km southeast of Visakhapatnam, 300 km east-southeast of Kakinada, 380 km south of Gopalpur, 390 km east of Machilipatnam and 460 km east of Bapatla — after moving at about 22 kmph over the preceding six hours, according to reports of the IMD update. Our morning report tracked the storm as a severe cyclonic storm with a red alert for seven Andhra districts; the intensification to very severe status, and the closing distance, are today's developments.
Landfall: Wednesday morning, close to Yanam
The track forecast has held steady. Arnab is expected to keep moving west-northwestwards until Tuesday evening, then turn northwestwards directly towards the coast, crossing the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, by the forenoon of Wednesday, October 28. It is forecast to still be a very severe cyclonic storm at landfall, with maximum sustained winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph. That is well below the roughly 200 kmph winds of Cyclone Hudhud, which devastated Visakhapatnam in 2014 — but Arnab's danger was never only about wind, and comparisons with Hudhud cut both ways: a slightly weaker storm can still flood the same low-lying districts if its rain arrives faster than drains and rivers can clear it.
The disruption has already started
The clearest sign that landfall is close is not on the satellite image but in the railway timetable. According to News18, 53 trains have been cancelled as a precaution, with Odisha separately reporting eight cancellations and the short-termination of two more services; schools in the affected coastal districts have been shut. Along the coast itself, the preparations described earlier — cyclone shelters readied, disaster-response teams deployed, fishing activity suspended — are now in their final hours before the storm arrives.
The rain map is widening
Arnab's footprint extends well beyond the landfall district. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam are forecast to receive heavy to very heavy rain on October 27 and 28. Odisha is expected to get heavy to very heavy rainfall on October 28 — with a yellow warning of 7–11 cm of rain across 16 districts — followed by Chhattisgarh on October 28 and 29 and eastern Uttar Pradesh on October 29, as the weakened system travels inland. Our Cyclone Arnab explainer sets out the full timeline of how the storm built from a depression into the system now approaching the coast.
What to watch in the next 24 hours
Two numbers will decide how Wednesday morning goes: whether the storm holds its very severe intensity all the way to the coast, and exactly where between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam the centre crosses — a shift of even 50 km changes which districts take the strongest winds and the heaviest rain. After landfall, the story becomes rainfall and flooding as the system weakens over land through Thursday. For anyone on the Andhra or south Odisha coast, the official guidance is unchanged and worth repeating: the last hours before landfall are for staying indoors and following district administration advisories, not for watching the sea.